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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 51.11

-2.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (8007)	3/12/2003 3:47:39 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 52153

I note that Forest labs now is the biggest player in New antidepressant prescriptions, with 22.7% of the market, split between Celexa (12.6% and falling) and Lexapro (10.2% and rising sharply). The runner-up is PFE with Zoloft's 22%. For Total Rx's, Zoloft still leads by about 1.6%. Turning to another biotech with strong fundamentals, I note that two big brokers have just upped GILD's estimated 2004 earnings. We haven't talked much about GILD, but it's worth noticing that they are one of the few biotechs to have successfully bought more than one small molecule drug all the way to market. What is more, I think Viread, Tamiflu and Hepsera are each best-in-class. A potential Viread/FTC once-a-day combo pill seems to me to be set to become a standard of care, likely with Sustiva as the other drug. Merrill estimates that Viread and the Viread/FTC combo could be a billion dollar seller by 2007. (Viread is currently a $225m drug). Most of my GILD position is currently in the form of some near-term calls, but I'm thinking that I'll exercise and hold part of the calls. Peter

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