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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: pezz who wrote (29627)3/12/2003 10:10:31 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (4) of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Long time no post, and longer time to go. Today’s Report:

(a) I have been traveling since late February, to Beijing, ShiJiaZhuang, Beijing, LuoYang in the west, Guangzhou in the south, Harbin in the northeast, and now back in Beijing, doing I have no clue what, but was fun;

(b) Converted a dollop (1.x%) of USD to ZAR (S.African Rand); and

(c) Instructed broker to use a portion of same to increase position in Impala Platinum (you know why: good fundamentals, great valuation, wonderful dividends, fabulous management) by little less than double when JSE opens for business.

(d) Random thought elements: Commodities up, dollar down, AUD/CAD/CHF/Euro up, gold sticky on the downside, most share markets down a lot, metal shares down a lot. Will add more S.African shares if metal shares declines more.

(e) More thoughts: Stocks will go down more. War will happen. Stocks may rally. Put/Call straddles are most wise. Financial and housing shares will crumble. Cash is still good. Physical/paper gold are cash. More paper cash being printed everywhere. Natural resource shares are cheap relative to increasing cash.

(f) Readying to play post-conflict rally, but really only via increasing exposure to China shares listed in Hong Kong.

(g) NAV is still up 2.08% for the year, falling from high of 4.3% gain. In any case, better than negative percentages. I am very afraid. Terrified if you want me to be precise. Well, actually, I am also having a ball, to be exact. You know, volatility is …, crisis is … ;0)

Chugs, Jay
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