Yes, on the time-vs.-adoption graph, we are entering the steep part of the S-shaped curve. The number of nuclear powers increased very slowly, in the 20th Century. But the pace has quickened. It's a positive reinforcement cycle: every nation that gets nukes, forces all their neighbors to seriously consider developing them, and makes it more respectable and acceptable. Non-proliferation worked, more or less, for 50 years after 1945, but now that's over. A policy of non-proliferation is wishful thinking, today.
Iran is basically a status-quo power. They have no territorial disputes with any of their neighbors. The Islamists there have their hands full, holding power inside Iran.
Pakistan and Israel, on the other hand, are not status-quo powers. Pakistan tried to make Afghanistan a client state, and also has never given up its claim to Kashmir. Israel is continuing its policy of colonization of Arab-populated areas. |
