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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: kumar who wrote (43757)	3/13/2003 3:32:52 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) of 50167

CS opinion…With a U.N. vote possible this week and the proposed U.S.- British resolution that sets a March 17th deadline for Iraqi compliance, it appears that geopolitical issues are marching towards a conclusion. Rather than waiting to judge the consequences of war, this report takes a look at our analysts' views on the two leading expected outcomes. Best Case: Quick decisive military victory... Iraqi oil wells intact, OPEC & Venezuela increase production and prices drop to low 20s Consumer & business confidence improves quickly and remains strong Bonds yields rise to reflect higher growth prospects but not enough to curtail growth North Korea threat resolved diplomatically No terrorist incidents US $ stabilizes Bear Case: Quick decisive military victory BUT ... Iraqi oil wells damaged, OPEC & Venezuela unable to makeup production loss, prices fall but remain at $30 Consumer & business confidence improves temporarily but declines in Q2 and remains depressed through yearend Bond yields slide further and stabilize at lower levels 1qtr GDP sparks fears of double-dip and economists forecast 2nd half growth of only 1-2% North Korea remains volatile along with Middle East instability Terrorist alerts trigger code red/orange warnings US $ continues to weaken N.B. My two cents worth… I will go along the first case… Short Euro on start of war, short gold on the second day of war short oil on a day with max confusion that can be any day in next few days, long markets on start of war..

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