<Without Saddam II the various tribes (Kurds and Shi'ites) would want their independent control of their respective territories and keep the oil wealth and other natural resources for themselves.>
The Kurds are an ethnic division and are completely landlocked, independent Kurd state would be opposed very strongly by Turks. Kurdish land control Tigris and Euphrates. The Tigris and Euphrates have a mutual origin, the highlands of Eastern Anatolia in Turkey. From here, the Tigris briefly enters Syria, and then flows directly to Iraq. The Euphrates flows through Syria for hundreds of miles before entering Iraq. It may be more about water than oil! The Kurds would not be allowed to take control of water even if they take control of oil, the vested interest of three parties will subdue Kurdish national claims. The claims of these countries on the two rivers contradict each other. Kurds, the indigenous people whose traditional homeland encompasses the headwaters of the two rivers, and who are fighting for statehood and thus independent water rights are seriously contested by all three nations. They are now subjects of these nations and a fourth nation is this dispute would not be acceptable to present three. When Turkey completes its Southeast Anatolia project that consists of a series of dams on the headwaters of both rivers, aims to generate electricity and allow increased agriculture to some of Turkey's poorest regions. Iraq, downstream of both Syria and Turkey, may lose as much as 80 percent of its inflow from the Euphrates. Syria, however, may lose up to 40 percent of its water source. Turkey is the economical and military dominant power and claims absolute sovereignty over water resources originating in its territory. So Kurds would not be allowed a separate homeland although they deserve it. A landlocked Kurdistan would be no use to Kurds but within present confederation of Iraq the Kurds of Iraq can pursue their claims of water rights far better. Their persecuted cousins under Turks would have to remain as they are as water resource is far too important for Turkey to compromise on, for Turks freedom of Kurdistan in Iraq will lead to a domino effect and the last thing Turks will agree is to loose control of two great rivers. Turkey claims absolute sovereignty over water resources originating in its territory imagine a free Kurdistan whose traditional homeland encompasses the headwaters of the two rivers that voids Turkish claim? That would not happen.
In the South the Shiites are a religious sect of Islam, now Shiites of South are ‘Akhbaris and Shiites of Iran are ‘Usulis’, Akhbaris are more close to their Sunni cousins than Usulis. The language, culture and religious doctrine of Iraqi southern Shiites is more in line with Iraqi nation than Iranians. So a broken up Iraq may be easy to draw on board as its was put in the last century only but breaking it would be a strategic nightmare and the local populace would not agree to it, it is for this reason, Ayatollah Baqar Hakim from South, Sharif Ali bin Hussein the Royalty who represents the Banu Hashim and purest of the creed with Barazani and Talebani agree to form a semblance of internal unity, they need it for sake of water and oil and religion. Iran and Turkey are the dominant players and the last thing the Southern Shiites or Northern Kurds want is to replace a tyrant by a new set of masters in shape of Turkey, Iran and Saudia. |
