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To: John Madarasz who wrote (8746)	3/13/2003 6:40:42 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (3) of 10157

Models are great but nothing works 100% of the time. If you can remember that and keep it in the back of your mind, you'll do well often. The markets are very emotional and mass action based. When too many people get on one side of a trade, theory, idea, etc, it has a greater chance to fail. I know many people here have watched Merlin's neural net work for quite a while. He was smack on for a good number of weeks and then it seemed like something broke. Many professionals have their good streaks and bad as no one can predict the markets 100% of the time. I have my good streaks and falter as well. The thing is...when you have a working theory, you play it until it starts to fail and then you have to modify your thinking and strategy. If you don't, you're going to suffer. The hard part is recognizing that point and then changing your strategy to come up a winner again. That doesn't mean anyone that misses is no longer good anymore. It's natural that a miss comes along. I have had my share of misses and occasionally I lose subscribers over it. But you know....those that have stuck around can tell you strategies change and we have always come back to a good winning streak. Merlin's patterns are getting back on track again from what I see by the way. I just think it's now time for the Bradley's turn to fail and fool the masses. I expected a rally but I have to say, I wasn't positioned for it as well as I could have been and am using it to reload short now. My bonus is recognizing the fact that it is probably time for the Bradley to fail and I am adapting to it. By the way...cycle turns are still good, but one has to remember...they can be minor or major and can invert as well. You never really know how a turn is going to be until maybe a few days right before it comes even if you have a date months in advance.

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