From Brian
Thoughts velo?
Howdy All,
I've updated the chartlist tonight, and you can look below the 60 min chart on the first page for some thoughts:
stockcharts.com
After thinking more about today and seeing the numbers come in tonight on the BP chart and other charts, I've got a feeling that this rally might turn into more than a bump up to the 830's to retrace the decline from 852. This might be a correction from 954. So although there should be a move down in the next few days in a wave B (perhaps 10-20 points), it may be followed by another 45-50 point ramp to 852-871. The wave B decline itself will tell the story about the likelihood of an expiration week rally, but I guess this is an advanced heads up for wavers.
This is not a forgone conclusion, but it is now a distinct possibility. Personally, I went short around 829 late today, but I now think I'll cover when the S&P declines and get fully hedged until things are more certain. If we do get up to 852 or 871 in the next week, EW suggests it will be VERY bearish for April through the summer.
EWI has been talking about another Fibonacci turn window on March 21, and for a while the debate has been whether it would prove to be an interim low or not. If we move higher in the next week, it will prove to be a high not a low (as happened in January). If so, the second quarter should make new bear market lows.
Thank you for all the compliments; it's encouraging!
All the Best,
Brian |
