Yeah, enough with the top calling. <g>
The Iraq resolution rally is underway. That's what this is. Everyone who's been looking at 1991 and trumpeting the stocks-rally-on-resolution model looked at the March 17 deadline and figures you gotta buy in a day or two before that. Voila! 10% SOX ramp in 10 hours. You can't be certain that there will be resolution on March 17, but everybody was pretty sure there wouldn't be resolution *before* then.
So, we are seeing the resolution rally. Was it predictable? Yes, and no. Yes, I think most expected a rally to launch when resolution was approaching, but no, I don't think the magnitude or duration are. So, I'm not playing this long, but I am staying hedged. I'm waiting to see the follow-through attempt a few days from now, and I'll probably begin ditching hedges into that.
The backdrop is sooooooooo different from 1991, but you gotta let the fools who think it's a 1991 repeat throw their greenbacks onto the bonfire first. Actually, it's a lot like that - watching people throw money onto a fire. You don't know how many will do it, and you don't know how much they have. The longer you wait, the more money might be there for you to grab, but you gotta grab it before the fire consumes it.
BC |
