Bush is now going to go down with the VIETNAM SYNDROME!
March 14, 2003
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Democracy Domino Theory 'Not Credible'
A State Department report disputes Bush's claim that ousting Hussein will spur reforms
in the Mideast, intelligence officials say.
By Greg Miller, Times Staff Writer
WASHINGTON -- A classified State Department
report expresses doubt that installing a new regime in
Iraq will foster the spread of democracy in the Middle
East, a claim President Bush has made in trying to build
support for a war, according to intelligence officials
familiar with the document.
The report exposes significant divisions within the Bush
administration over the so-called democratic domino
theory, one of the arguments that underpins the case
for invading Iraq.
The report, which has been distributed to a small group
of top government officials but not publicly disclosed,
says that daunting economic and social problems are
likely to undermine basic stability in the region for
years, let alone prospects for democratic reform.
Even if some version of democracy took root — an
event the report casts as unlikely — anti-American
sentiment is so pervasive that elections in the short term
could lead to the rise of Islamic-controlled
governments hostile to the United States.
"Liberal democracy would be difficult to achieve," says
one passage of the report, according to an intelligence
official who agreed to read portions of it to The Times.
"Electoral democracy, were it to emerge, could well be
subject to exploitation by anti-American elements."
The thrust of the document, the source said, "is that this
idea that you're going to transform the Middle East and
fundamentally alter its trajectory is not credible."
Even the document's title appears to dismiss the
administration argument. The report is labeled "Iraq,
the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes."
The report was produced by the State Department's
Bureau of Intelligence and Research, the in-house
analytical arm.
State Department officials declined to comment on the
report. Intelligence officials said the report does not
necessarily reflect the views of Secretary of State Colin
L. Powell or other senior State Department officials.
Daunting Challenges
The obstacles to reform outlined in the report are daunting.
"Middle East societies are riven" by political, economic and social problems that
are likely to undermine stability "regardless of the nature of any externally
influenced or spontaneous, indigenous change," the report said, according to the
source.
The report is dated Feb. 26, officials said, the same day Bush endorsed the
domino theory in a speech to the conservative American Enterprise Institute in
Washington.
It's not clear whether the president has seen the report, but such documents are
typically distributed to top national security officials.
"A new regime in Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example of
freedom for other nations in the region," Bush said.
Other top administration officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, have
made similar remarks in recent months.
But the argument has been pushed hardest by a group of officials and advisors
who have been the leading proponents of going to war with Iraq. Prominent
among them are Paul D. Wolfowitz, the deputy defense secretary, and Richard
Perle, chairman of the Defense Policy Board, an influential Pentagon advisory
panel.
Wolfowitz has said that Iraq could be "the first Arab democracy" and that even
modest democratic progress in Iraq would "cast a very large shadow, starting
with Syria and Iran but across the whole Arab world."
Similarly, Perle has said that a reformed Iraq "has the potential to transform the
thinking of people around the world about the potential for democracy, even in
Arab countries where people have been disparaging of their potential."
White House officials hold out the promise of a friendly and functional
government in Baghdad to contrast with administration portrayals of President
Saddam Hussein's regime as brutal and bent on building his stock of biological
and chemical weapons.
The domino theory also is used by the administration as a counterargument to
critics in Congress and elsewhere who have expressed concern that invading
Iraq will inflame the Muslim world and fuel terrorist activity against the United
States.
But the theory is disputed by many Middle East experts and is viewed with
skepticism by analysts at the CIA and the State Department, intelligence officials
said.
Divisions in Iraq
Critics say even establishing a democratic government in Iraq will be extremely
difficult. Iraq is made up of ethnic groups deeply hostile to one another. Ever
since its inception in 1932, the country has known little but bloody coups and
brutal dictators.
Even so, it is seen by some as holding more democratic potential — because of
its wealth and educated population — than many of its neighbors.
By some estimates, 65 million adults in the Middle East can't read or write, and
14 million are unemployed, with an exploding, poorly educated youth population.
Given such trends, "we'll be lucky to have strong central governments [in the
Middle East], let alone democracy," said one intelligence official with extensive
experience in the region.
The official stressed that no one in intelligence or diplomatic circles opposes the
idea of trying to install a democratic government in Iraq.
"It couldn't hurt," the official said. "But to sell [the war] on the basis that this is
going to cause 1,000 flowers to bloom is naive."
Some officials said the classified document reflects views that are widely held in
the State Department and CIA but that those holding such views have been
muzzled in an administration eager to downplay the costs and risks of war.
One intelligence official said the CIA has not been asked to produce its own
analysis on the domino question.
CIA Assessment
At a recent hearing on Capitol Hill, CIA Director George J. Tenet offered a
modest assessment of the prospects that overthrowing Hussein could prompt a
wave of reform.
"I don't want to be expansive in, you know, a big domino theory about what
happens in the rest of the Arab world," Tenet said. "But an Iraq whose territorial
integrity has been maintained, that's up and running and functioning ... may
actually have some salutary impact across the region."
The State Department report cites "high levels of corruption, serious
infrastructure degradation, overpopulation" and other forces causing widespread
disenfranchisement in the region.
The report concludes that "political changes conducive to broader and enduring
stability throughout the region will be difficult to achieve for a very long time."
Middle East experts said there are other factors working against democratic
reform, including a culture that values community and to some extent conformity
over individual rights.
"I don't accept the view that the fall of Saddam Hussein is going to prompt quick
or even discernible movement toward democratization of the Arab states," said
Philip C. Wilcox, director of the Foundation for Middle East Peace and a former
top State Department official. "Those countries are held back not by the
presence of vicious authoritarian regimes in Baghdad but by a lot of other
reasons."
Bush has responded to such assessments by assailing the "soft bigotry of low
expectations."
In pushing for democracy in the Middle East, he is departing somewhat from a
long track record of U.S. presidents — focused on preserving stability,
economic ties, and access to Middle East oil — backing autocratic regimes.
Still, the Bush White House has been selective in applying pressure for reform,
favoring longtime U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Times staff writer Sonni Efron contributed to this report.
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