Here is something I wrote for another thread:
One looks at the whole nature of a regime, and its capabilities, before assessing a strategic threat. For example, Syria has regional ambitions of reconstituting a Greater Syria out of Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan, at least, but has shown no ambition out of area. Pakistan and India vie for Kashmir, but do not show particular ambitions outside of this issue. North Korea aspires to conquer the entire peninsula, but has shown no great ambition outside of it, and,in any case, is too weak to hold territory externally. Iran primarily aspires to wrest the holy places (Mecca and Medinah) from Saudi Arabia. It has shown sympathy to the idea of Islamic ascendency, but has shown much interest in it as a goal for state action.
Of dubious regimes, Iraq uniquely subscribes to an ideology of pan-Arabic ascendency, its regional ambitions a mere platform to long term goals of leading the Arab world to world hegemony. The Ba'athist Party is basically an Arabic version of Nazism, replete with racial theorizing, the adulation of violence, and the promise that the future belongs to the Arabs, who are more vital than the decadent Europeans, and superior to most other peoples.
Saddam Hussein knows, of course, that he has neither the manpower nor the weaponry to challenge the United States and NATO, which is why it is imperative to develop weapons of mass destruction to alter the balance. Since he would be vulnerable to containment if he relied on state resources alone, it is also imperative to make connections with the terrorist underworld, in order to preserve deniability while setting up strikes against the West.
The immediate goal is to decouple the West from the region, enough that he can intimidate the Arabian oil producing countries and gain control over their oil fields, as one aspect of leverage on the West. Israel is key, insofar as Saddam hopes to win prestige enough to lead the Arab world by taking Israel out, once and for all, thus gaining manpower, armaments, and other resources. With nuclear weapons and an active alliance with terrorist organizations, it is not inconceivable that he can wreak havoc, and attain some part of his goals.
This is why Iraq is the immediate target of aggressive American interest, because he is, in fact, the greatest threat currently on the agenda........ |
