the US warships are leaving Turkish ports. Has that affected the Lira?
USD/TRL went up by 1.0% to 1,643,000. Interest rates went up about 1.5 bp to 60%. To put that in perspective, when I sold USD to buy t-bills in mid-January, it was at a rate of USD/TRL=1,662,000, or 1.14% above today's close.
I think the market is in denial - the feeling is that a second bill will come to the parliament and pass this time.
The government was formed today, and the vote of confidence is expected next tuesday-wednesday. The second bill for deployment of US troops is expected afterwards, at the end of next week.
US has already deployed a lot of people and equipment in their bases, rented the whole Iskenderun Port for the month of March (USD 4 mn), and made agreements for train transportation. It still looks like there will be an agreement between the US and Turkey.
I am thinking of re-entering into t-bills in a few days, when the UN resolution is abandoned and fears are increased that a second resolution might not pass in Turkey. Of course there may never be a second resolution, in which case I will cross my fingers and hope the exchange rate does not skyrocket until my forward contract is due.
Joys of investing in banana republics :-) |
