Maurice – I appreciate your thoughtful comments. Personally, I am an optimist, and my glass is always (at least) half full. I intend not to give in to any doom and gloom – life is too short for that. I also believe in progress, but I think it does not follow a straight line, but occurs in big mighty ups and downs, with advances followed by consolidations – and it does appear that at this time we may be due for a solid, sizable pullback…
Malthus, as I recall, thought that the number of humans grows geometrically, while the production of necessities, such as food, only increases in an additive, arithmetical progression. He was wrong on both counts, since he apparently simply extrapolated the trends of the time, and he didn’t foresee changes in productivity which occurred in the future – and, as you mentioned, demographic dynamics also turned out to be more complicated.
So, it would appear that Maltus built his theory on two separate projections, and each one of them in time turned out to have a variable nature, which is something he has not foreseen. Elliott, on the other hand, is based not on a variable, but on what is a permanent part of our nature, on the emotional mechanisms which are based in the ancient parts of our brain. I don’t know enough about Kondratieff’s theories at this time, so I'll leave him out for now...
Your optimism is certainly impressive – here we are, in the year 2003, and radical unreformed members of an old religion – along with some egomaniacal bloody dictators – threaten to drag us into worldwide conflicts which may involve unconventional weaponry, and you see a future where problems are solved, and where reason is victorious. Hey, if it weren’t so early in the morning, I’d drink to that! |
