lower
I think everyone is way too optimistic about the US military and the outcome it will acheive.
First, I doubt it will be done as quick as many think.
Second, I doubt Saddam goes down without a fight, and while WMD (chem, bio, nuc) are probably out of the question, sending missles to Israel is not.
Finally, I think that we are in for more than what the public is lead to believe, especially regarding the cost of the war, the cost of the post-war era, and the looming confrontation with North Korea and Iran.
So even if we rally for the next two weeks, that will be based on the EOM window dressing, 2-week spirited rally based on the 1991 gulf war template and nothing else. Once the reality sets in of a poor US/Global economy and foreigners continuing to cut back spending on US goods, we should drop and drop fast.
I think 2-3 months is a safer bet for hard down, but that doesn't mean it won't happen within a month.
One caveat of course is that we are IN the gulf war template NOW, and thus will drop sooner rather than later. From a contrarian point of view where everyone is looking for a rally after the war, this one is my favorite. |
