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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way
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To: - with a K who wrote (396)3/16/2003 8:05:34 PM
From: The Philosopher  Read Replies (1) of 469
 
It's not section 2 that fails to pass the barbed wire test.

It's section 1, combined with the PERT.

The sales line is clearly slowing down dramatically. What I like to do on section 1 in a case like this is click on it to get the modification box, then knock out all the years I'm not interested in. In this case, I knocked out 1993 through 1999. That gives me 2-1/2 years of data, and suddenly the historical sales growth is down to 5.7%. (I put those years back in before exiting the modification box).

The PERT, which I personally include above the barbed wire, clearly shows up the problems.

Those factors are why I rejected it out of hand.

I also use the NAIC data, read it directly into Toolkit (am about to give up AAII, so far am keeping it only for the screening, but it's an expensive screening tool now that NAIC has the data). What is column Y? Are you using Stock Analyst? The Toolkit PERT doesn't have a column Y. And what is line C? Not on Toolkit.

Yes, I have noticed that recent BI stocks have not been exciting. Which is weird because there are quite a few great possibilies out there. I think part of the problem is the lead time. But part of it is maybe an entrenched set of people picking the stocks who need some new blood.

Hmmm. Should we volunteer? <g>
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