War Diary: Monday, March 17, 2003
Mar 17, 2003
So now we come down to it. The United States delivered a clear ultimatum to both the U.N. Security Council and Iraq. Unless a diplomatic solution is found on Monday, March 17, the United States will go to war with Iraq -- at a time of its own choosing, but clearly very soon. The British were almost in the same place, but Prime Minister Tony Blair emphasized his willingness to find a compromise, where U.S. President George W. Bush seemed more determined to move beyond the Security Council.
At the moment, this is not about Iraqi President Saddam Hussein or the Security Council. It is about France. Bush, in a statement designed to win points at home, used what he termed an old Texas poker saying: It's time for France to put its cards on the table. French President Jacques Chirac clearly knew what was coming. In an interview on American television taped before the Summit, Chirac modified his position on Iraq, saying that France was prepared to accept a 30-day extension, rather than the 120-day extension he sought, regarding a deadline for Iraq to comply with U.N. disarmament demands. However, Chirac remained committed to the French doctrine that the deadline must not be tied to automatic consequences.
Chirac was clearly trying to speak to the American public during the interview, when he said, "France and I have always been friends of the United States." But he also said that "we will naturally go to the end with our refusal" to support war. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney responded to Chirac's proposal, saying that "it's difficult to take the French seriously and believe this is anything other than just further delaying tactics."
It is interesting to note that Bush went out of his way during the press conference to call attention to his Texan roots. One of the charges leveled in France against the him is that he is a cowboy. Bush sought to affirm that charge in a move designed to inflame French feelings while strengthening his position in the United States. At home, Bush is positioning himself as the plain-talking, honest Texan up against the devious and untrustworthy French. The more angry the French get, the greater Bush's support at home. He continues to use the French card to buttress his domestic position, and Chirac is using the Texan card to buttress his own position at home. In a way, the two need each other right now.
Nevertheless, France has perhaps 24 hours to craft its endgame. The biggest headache it could cause would be to accept the British proposal with an additional extension of one or two weeks. Bush really doesn't want this. First, it pushes things even further into bad weather. Second, it has six not fully definable criteria that Hussein can play with, and finally, it makes France appear to be less of a demon than is useful for Bush. However, for Chirac to make this move, he would have to accept the idea that failure to comply means war. It is simply not clear that, after all this time, Chirac can accept the notion of war. If he did, the actions he took before would appear frivolous. A man who takes a stand on principle will have trouble bargaining when the time comes.
Hussein hurled threats as a result of the summit -- threats that must not be dismissed. The Iraqi News Agency quoted Hussein saying, "When the enemy starts a large-scale battle, he must realize that the battle between us will be open wherever there is sky, land and water in the entire world." What Hussein appeared to be saying is that he intended global war -- a series of attacks throughout the world by Iraqi or allied special operatives in response to a U.S. attack in Iraq.
That is Hussein's intention. Then there is the question of Hussein's capabilities. Hussein's regime is based on power, not ideology. Few in his employee would care to go to their deaths, particularly in a lost cause. On the other hand, there are those in al Qaeda, which consists of ideologues. Hussein would not be a cause worth dying for, but the U.S. invasion of Iraq could be used as justification for their own attacks.
This first response from Hussein is not definitive, of course. The day there starts at about 1100 GMT. The United States will wake up to Hussein's real answer. If he goes true to course, we continue to expect him to make some gesture designed to delay war and to confuse the issue. That will only work if the French seize it as a sign of Iraqi cooperation. Even then, it will probably not stop the United States. But then the French themselves are inevitably reconsidering their own position tonight.
There is a deep chasm between the United States and France. Bush is not going to deviate any further from his course. Delays already have caused him to increase the risk of war somewhat for a host of reasons. He is under pressure from the Defense Department to act -- and he will. The only player with options is Chirac. If he holds fast to his position and continues to oppose the United States during the war, the France's chasm with the United States will probably turn into a rupture. That is not what other Europeans want to see happen, and over the long run, without European support, it is not what Chirac wants to see, either. By mid-morning tomorrow, Chirac will have to turn over his cards. |
