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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Perspective who wrote (228509)3/17/2003 12:26:08 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
bc, i'm sure i'm becomming a broken record at this point, but IMHO if you are looking for HIGHER rates to be the sign of the death of the housing bubble you are IMO looking in the wrong place. the busting of the housing bubble will be accompanied by LOWER rates (much to everyone's surprise <g>) as those low rates will be indicative of a stagnant/contracting economy with falling wages.

in the meantime, banks and other financial institutions have a carp-load of capital to put to work (customer deposits and repo financing). even if rates back up a little mortgage spreads will contract further as banks fight for volume, which will keep mortgage rates low. i know Bill Gross doesn't think mortgage spreads can go any lower (and i was tempted to agree with him at the time) but don't forget / underestimate the ability of bankers to misread / f' up every market in which they get involved.

Cheers
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