Presumably the rally is relief over diminished uncertainty, right?
Funny thing is, I see us entering a time of greater, not lesser, uncertainty.
That a war was coming has been clear for a while, so nothing just got cleared-up, other than timing.
On the other hand, unless you see the war AND its aftermath as easy and a done deal, the main uncertainty is just now upon us.
And as additional uncertainty, war is going to proceed with much greater objections from the rest of the world than most have expected.
I am thinking that the concept of a "war rally" may be so entrenched that it is simply going to happen, no matter what. Kind of like buying AMZN if it is 1999.
But if that is it, it can't last. |
