Jon, think you may be right.
...
Pravada says war has already started:
english.pravda.ru
...
And this is from Rev Shark on RealMoney (somebody i trust after reading him for over a year now...)
Certainty and Doubt TSC Staff 3/17/03 01:07 PM EST
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."
-- Bertrand Russell
The wiser folks with doubts are watching the fools and fanatics rack up some big gains today. One of the things that is so difficult about the market at times is that even best logic or reasoning can be totally frustrated if your timing is off.
A lot of folks out there who have been anticipating a war rally were looking for a more substantial pullback before it started. They were caught by surprise this morning, as were the shorts, when this market reversed with a vengeance in the first 30 minutes of trading. Once we went positive, that triggered all sorts of buy stops and sent us running hot and heavy.
The big question now is whether we can keep running at this pace. Entries are extremely tough now after this huge three-day move, but trying to short this has been nothing but fodder for the bulls so far.
The DJIA is right at overhead resistance now, at around 8100. That is the 50-day moving average, as well as the highs back near the end of January. The S&P 500 has a similar configuration. The Nasdaq has better relative strength, but it runs into overhead at around 1400.
The volume out there is huge, breadth very strong, and technology stocks are leading the way. Although we are getting extended very fast, there is very powerful momentum right now, and it is dangerous to get in front of it.
I am increasingly concerned that we are setting up now for a "sell the news" move when the war actually does take place. It seems like we are pricing in the best-case scenario right now, and I'm not so sure the endgame in Iraq is going to be all that simple. |
