Here is a post that I just uploaded to the Motley Fool PMSI folder:
Just substitute DWCH for PMSI....you get the drift...
I have been a round-trip ticket holder in PMSI since April of last year and I feel the same way you do. I have always been a buy & holder when I feel I'm right about the underlying prospects and fundamentals of a company. But the truth is...is that there is a time value on money that a buy & holder seems to neglect. I know that this is a heretical idea here in Fooldom and believe me, I've been a staunch advocate and defender of Foolish policy on all the folders I participate in. But lately I have been slowly changing my investment concepts to encompass some new ideas. It is true that one cannot time the market or attempt to do so, however, for some investors who DO & CAN spend a significant amount of time following their investments, they may be able to get in or out of various issues deftly enough to capture profits when they present themselves.
For example, my purchase of PMSI at 12 last year...saw the stock run up to 21 in a few short weeks. That, my friends, was a gift (of course, now that hindsight is my microscope and telescope)...the consensus target at that time was approx $18 here in this folder. But a lot of us didn't move on it...why? Was it greed or hoping for that last eighth of a point? Most likely it was. Why didn't we move when PMSI promptly fell to 16 after the ill-fated secondary was announced? I still had a 25% gain at that time in a few short weeks? No, I said, it was just at 21....it'll be back there soon enough after the Street digests the info and sees what a great company this is. I even bought more at 16 after asking myself if I would still buy the stock today and answered in the affirmative. And so on and so on...
Today, my money still sits in PMSI, and it has been a wasting asset this past year. I've learned many a lesson from PMSI and consider the time value that has been lost just more tuition in my education as an investor.
How many more great earnings reports will PMSI issue that the Street will just ignore. When a company's great news doesn't move investors to buy, there just isn't any interest anymore. Maybe someday there will be...but it doesn't seem likely soon. A fundamental fact remains...you need buyers to push the price of a stock up. And no one is interested in PMSI...
I haven't turned into a bear on PMSI...I only feel that I'm a realist and that my eyes are slowly opening to what has been apparent all year. And when you open your eyes as slowly as I did, it's too late already...
Paul |
