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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (20437)	3/18/2003 12:25:35 AM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (2) of 206093

RE # 20437. Ed, the author says, "Some assume that Iraq could turn into an Opec-buster as its output increases. But its likely growth in output would not give Iraq that kind of clout. It would not have the ability to "flood" the market. Nor would it have the desire. Its intense need for revenues would make it much more interested in selling oil at $20 or $25 a barrel, rather than at a bargain basement rate such as $10." There are a lot of assumptions built into the article's underlying view that the war's not about oil. First, his time line goes out 10 years. It appears that the blueprint for the U.S. assertion of military power to force regime change in Iraq has its roots at least from 1997. That's 5 years. 10 years is not a lot of time especially when you consider that oil will be more of a strategic resource at that time unless some new technologies offer alternative energy. Second he uses words like "its intense needs" and "[it would be] more interested." What makes the author conclude that "it" (Iraq) will be pulling all the strings. I'm sure that once in military control of Iraq we are not going to abandon "our" strategic interests. If we do it will be a first in our dealings with the oil rich countries of the middle east. Finally, when the author states that "[Iraqs] likely growth in output" would not give Iraq the clout to become an opec buster, what limits their growth in output? It's certainly not the availability of light, sweet, crude. It must be the availability of the resources to access and transport it. He uses figures like 7 billion to get to 3.5 million bbls a day and 20 billion to get to 5.5 million barrels a day. I guess they don't know anyone with that kind of money that would commit it in return for a long term right to control production? I kind of suspect that a country that can afford to pay Turkey billions for the right to use its bases, can afford that kind of money. So maybe he's right but the article makes too many unfounded assumptions to be convincing. Ed

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