Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (29548)	3/18/2003 9:36:25 AM
From: terry richardson	Read Replies (1) of 36161

Hi Frank: I would think that the timing is perfect for a coup. Much better than 6 months ago. The problem before has been that no one could be sure that the US would support them afterwards. Now that doubt has been removed. Saddam knows his time is now limited one way or another and so do the Iraqi military. They will be looking for leadership for a coup which would be acceptable to the US. Otherwise some will be going down for various past crimes against their own people following a successful war. I'm looking for most of the Iraqi units to fold quickly within the first 24 hours and the siege of the cities to be over quickly if it gets that far. Allied forces would knock out water and power quickly and then wait I would think. A modern city like Baghdad can't hold out long with no power or water and the sewers backing up. The West wants a strong guy in charge afterwards. No one wants to have to administer Iraq following a war. Saddam is now at his weakest I would think, with elements in the military looking for someone to take the lead. That guy Nizar al-Khazraji or someone like him could step in at the eleventh hour and make Bush & Blair heroes for pushing to the limit. Al-Khazraji is a typical choice, even if only as an interim leader. Might not last long since there would be calls for elections down the road. I can certainly envision as the first bombs begin falling and news of mass surrenders gets back to Baghdad that a coup takes place with Saddam either assassinated or going into exile by agreement and an immediate cease fire being called while Iraq sorts itself out in a post Saddam environment. The massive War effort has also resulted in US bases all over the area which will remain of course to "monitor progress" in Iraq and to keep the other oil producers in line or in power as the case may be. Also in position for the next phase... Iran. No fallout for Bush/Blair and perpetual war continues and keeps JQ6P from looking at the economy. Won't have long to wait in any case. Regards T.

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