Are we making any friends over in the Arab world...?
Arab opinion of US hits all-time low
zogby.com
ARAB PUBLIC opinion towards the United States has dropped to dangerously low levels, even before an anticipated US-led attack on Iraq. Following are the findings of a recent Arab American Institute/Zogby International (AAI/ZI) poll of 2,600 individuals from key Arab countries. The poll was conducted in early March 2003 and had a margin of error of between ±3.8 to ±5. The countries polled included Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In an earlier AAI/ZI poll, done in March of 2002, it was found that US favourable ratings were already quite low and that the factor that drove these negative opinions was the unbalanced US policy towards the Palestinians. It appears that this year's poll results have been impacted as well by the US' unilateralist approach towards Iraq. The most significant drops in US ratings occurred in Morocco and Jordan. In 2002, for example, 34 per cent of Jordanians had a positive view of the United States, as compared to 61 per cent who had a negative view. In 2003, only 10 per cent of Jordanians hold a positive view of the United States, while 81 per cent see the country in a negative light. Similarly, in Morocco, the favourable/unfavourable rating towards the United States in 2002 were 38 per cent to 61 per cent. Today they are 9 per cent favourable and 88 per cent unfavourable. The US' favourable/unfavourable ratings were already quite low in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They have remained low. In 2002, the ratings in Egypt were 15 per cent favourable to 76 per cent unfavourable. In 2003, Egyptians' ratings of the United States are 13 per cent favourable and 80 per cent unfavourable. In Saudi Arabia, 12 per cent viewed the United States favourably and 87 per cent unfavourably in 2002. Today, 3 per cent see it favourably and 97 per cent unfavourably. In the UAE, the ratio showed almost no change from an 11 per cent favourable/87 per cent unfavourable in 2002 to 11 per cent favourable/85 per cent unfavourable in 2003. In all five countries, US policy towards Iraq received only single digit favourable ratings, while nine respondents out of ten opposed current US policy towards that country. These numbers do not translate into support for the Iraqi regime, however, since majorities in three of the five countries indicated that they wanted to see the regime in Baghdad disarmed of all weapons of mass destruction. In answer to the question “do you agree or disagree that the government of Iraq should fully comply with UN weapons inspectors,” 52 per cent of all Arabs in the Emirates agreed, while only 34 per cent disagreed. In Egypt, 51 per cent agreed while 41 per cent disagreed. A plurality of Moroccans agree that Baghdad should cooperate. Only in Jordan and Saudi Arabia did slightly less than one in four agree with the demand, while two-thirds disagreed. What is important to note is that Arabs in all these countries do not support the United States' acting unilaterally to disarm Iraq. When asked: “If Iraq does not comply with UN inspectors, or if the UN finds that Iraq has been hiding weapons of mass destruction, would you support or oppose United States unilateral military action to make Iraq comply?” those responding positively were quite low: 14 per cent (Egypt), 9 per cent (UAE), 8 per cent (Jordan), 3 per cent (Saudi Arabia) 1 per cent (Morocco). When asked, however, if they would approve of a UN-endorsed effort to disarm Iraq, should the regime fail to comply, the percentages increased considerably: 32 per cent (UAE), 29 per cent (Egypt), 18 per cent (Saudi Arabia), 16 per cent (Morocco), 10 per cent (Jordan). What should be most disturbing to US policy makers is the lack of confidence in and goodwill towards US policy that this poll establishes. In the 2002 poll, for example, we asked a number of what are called “projective” questions. For example: “If the US were to apply pressure to ensure the creation of an independent Palestinian state, would that make you more favourable, less favourable or make no difference in your attitude towards the United States?” In almost all cases, in 2002, about 80 per cent of all Arab respondents indicated that this change in policy would make them more favourably inclined towards the United States. The current poll, however, did not elicit such a response. Only in the UAE did a majority indicate that their attitude towards the United States would improve if “the US were to apply pressure to ensure the creation of a Palestinian state”. In Jordan, only 31 per cent said their attitude would improve and in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Morocco those indicating that their attitudes towards the US would improve were 27 per cent, 26 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. Almost 7 of 10 in those countries indicated that their attitude would not improve. It is not clear from the poll why this hypothetical change in US policy now fails to create a change in attitudes towards the United States. Several possibilities may be suggested. Arab public opinion may simply no longer believe that the US will act in an even-handed manner to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. After failing to act to end the crisis of last March and April, siding with Israel's Ariel Sharon, and then failing to issue the Quartet's “roadmap” in a timely manner, Arab opinion may have concluded that the United States simply will not act to bring Palestinians justice. It may be that the conflict has gone on so long without any positive US action, that even if there were to be a change in policy, it may be too little too late to win Arab support. Finally, it may also be due to the fact that the US' unilateralist approach towards Iraq has done such damage to American standing in the region that even a hypothetical change in policy is not enough to replenish the reservoir of goodwill towards the United States that once existed. In any case, what this 2003 AAI/ZI poll establishes is that the United States is treading on dangerous ground in the Arab world today. It is a fact that has been the subject of much discussion. But now we have hard numbers to support what is a widely held view.
(3/18/2003)
- By James J. Zogby, Jordan Times |
