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Technology Stocks : DWCH-Datawatch Worth Watching!
DWCH 13.100.0%Dec 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: Xavier who wrote (248)7/30/1997 7:08:00 PM
From: Robert J. Partridge   of 462
 
Xavier, as Lew Lieberbaum correctly classifies DWCH (and will tell you, if directly asked), it is a speculative stock. I still have some shares, which I just haven't bothered to dispose of. Their current value is only a tiny fraction of my portfolio.

The best I can tell, money invested in a speculative stock should just about be written off. It may come in and be a ten bagger, but that's a long shot. I confess I don't know a great deal about the fundamentals of DWCH, so I have very little idea about the ultimate survival of the company. To be quite honest, I have zero interest in becoming intimately involved with DWCH - so my input there would be meaningless.

I currently own two literal penny stocks, GRNTQ and EXSO, that started out being worth about ten times more. Is DWCH going to go to 1/32 x 1/16, as EXSO did? Who knows? I'd be having a lot of sleepless nights if a sizable portion of my capital depended on the answer to that question.

The best use of DWCH now is as a learning experience. You have to go back and ask yourself why you bought it in the first place, and why did your exit strategy fail to protect you. In the year I have been investing, my major focus has been on learning how to avoid declining stocks. I guess I'm different from everybody else, but I just hate to be in a stock that's underwater, and going deeper. I've learned to recognize that stocks that fit this description have other similar patterns - the most obvious, they are below the 20/50 day moving averages. I avoid those stocks like the plague.

It really is a greed thing that drives people into a falling stock. It keeps looking cheaper and cheaper, and you just HAVE to get it before it gets away from you. Wrongo, nobody knows where the bottom is. And it isn't going to get that far away from you before it starts looking good. I want a good solid recovery before I'm interested in looking at a stock.

Funny thing is, if you define a recovery as the price going back above the 20/50, you'll see that the 20/50 is almost always just 15 - 20% away from the price. What this means is that from the very bottom the stock only has to rise 15 to 20% to meet that criteria. There is no other selection criteria that you can apply to a falling stock that is going to so consistently allow you to enter the stock within that range of the bottom (20% of DWCH is about 40 cents a share). I'd much rather get in at 2.40 than 3.00, or 4.00, etc. I'll always miss getting in at 1.80 (assuming that's the bottom), but so what? Just about everybody in the stock is down substantially more than 20%.

Sorry I couldn't give more concrete advice on how best to extricate from this situation, but perhaps I've offered insight to assist you in avoiding similar fates in the future.

Robert

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