Relax, this is not the typical "speculative buy"...here's what I posted on the subject at AOL...
An investment in AIPN is a "speculative buy" only for those who have not yet understood what this story is all about. In an earlier post, I tried to explain that this deal is not your typical "wildcat" exploration with all the risks that that entails. Rather, this is the story of how the Kazak government with the cooperation of a consortium of Kazak businessmen has put together an oil development project in which they will have an equity interest. This is about a relatively newly independant nation trying to, on the one hand, encourage and support local industry, and, on the other hand, asserting its desire to control the exploitation of its natural resources...in this case case oil that the Kazaks know exists in this License Area. It's a given, folks.You don't support local industry by giving locals dry wells. The Kazak government will not screw its own people especially if those people are part of a company (MSUP) that has as its Honorary Chairman the brother of the President of Kazakstan.
We, as shareholders, may choose to think that we are speculating but, if we do, we are dead wrong. You can be sure the Kazaks are not speculating. They know there is lots of oil in the concession...they just don't know how much. I would urge those who feel they do not understand what is going on here to go back to my posts entitled "Report" (there are three dated July 29).This is not a typical oil exploration story. If you do not look at it in the context of the break-up of the Soviet Union and the national interests of Kazakstan, you will missing two key elements of the story. Bottom line...there is oil in the ground (some of it is still leaking to the surface), the Kazaks have proof of that fact and are acting to protect their interests to the fullest extent possible. AIPN was the least threatening choice as a vehicle to help bring the project to fruition.
There is no way this stock goes to .50 or anywhere near it. How can I say that? It's simple....OIL EXISTS...PERIOD. The crude that is leaking to the surface of the well in Bengash is, in effect, clear evidence of "proved" reserves. Ever consider the possibility that the Kazaks decided to keep the biggest prize for themselves when they granted the license to Kazak-owned DANK awhile back? I have...and that thought helped convince me to buy more stock this morning.
This may not be a 100% safe investment (none are, after all) but "highly speculative"??? Forget about it!!
Furthermore, none of the reporters who cover AIPC have come anywhere near understanding this story....but, then, they are energy industry reporters who are not expected to examine the political dynamics of the region or the ways in which this deal might be reflective of changing strategies designed to protect Kazak national interests. We will have to wait for a political writer with an energy background to do an in-depth feature about Kazakstan. In the meantime, I must be one of the few people on this board who is not sweating the roller-coaster trading in the stock.
If you can see the big picture, as I believe I can, then these dips are merely additional opportunities to accumulate. No sweat...I trust that the Kazaks, in whom we have "de facto" put our faith, know exactly what they are doing.
Any comments?
Cheers...Faris |
