John,
I respectfully disagree. You are right in general ("purchased at a discount to long-term value"), however, IMHO, you are wrong in specifics. It is impossible to measure Barrick Gold or International Paper using the same measures as you would for Cisco or Microsoft. They have very different risks, very different growth (or cyclical) patterns, very different causes of earnings increase, drop, etc. You can make tons of money if you understand gold market and invest in Barrick. You will not make a cent if you understand gold and invest in Microsoft. And vice versa: you may make money if you understand Microsoft's monopoly (Gorillaness), but it won't make you a cent in Barrick.
Now, you might say: "But I don't need to understand Microsoft's monopoly, I just need to understand its financials, and calculate the long-term value". But I don't think you can, unless you do understand why they have the margins they have and why these margins can (cannot?) be maintained. So I still claim, that you do need to understand Microsoft's monopoly to invest in it.
Or you can wait until it's value is so conservatively low that it will never happen.
Jurgis - of cause, you can also trade them both, but then you need to understand charts, and that's yet another area... |
