PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH Message Board

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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH

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To: JDN who wrote (374342)	3/19/2003 3:04:27 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) of 769670

However, I feel I own quality stocks (I never got into the crazy stocks) and sooner or later these industries have got to return. No, they won't. Note that I haven't even asked what stocks they are! It doesn't matter. Even the "best" of them will fail to beat T-Bills over the 20 year timeframe of 2000 to 2019. Enough said. Regarding the belief that the stock prices have "got to return", I can do no better than quote famed money-manager Ralph Wanger : This is a psychological fallacy [called]... "anchoring." The proper solution to this problem is to understand that these magical high prices never really happened. That high-tick trade took place between two day traders looking at numbers on their computer terminals, who were trading a ticker symbol. [...] That high price? Forget about it. It's like the golf round you had a few years ago when you shot 38 on the first nine. It hasn't recurred, it's not going to happen again, and, if you think it might, you are doomed to a life of disappointment and lost bets.

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