Since you asked, I think the majority are expecting/resigned to another leg up once this one corrects. I say this based on the handful of SI boards, I-Hub and one other (subscription) board I follow. The only debate I see is how far the C leg goes. As a stubborn bear who foolishly held through the Oct-Dec rally, I plan on jettisoning my trading puts at the 23, 38 and (if I still hold anything) 50% retracement levels once we hit the top of this move -- hopefully soon (g/ng).
Looking a moving averages, the 200 DMA is at 8453 on the Dow and 894 on the S&P. It will be interesting to see what kind of resistance they prove to be. If we have a 38% retrace from today's high, that would take us to about 842 on the S&P. If the C up from there is 61% of this A (875-789=86; 86*.61=52), that would take it right to that 200 DMA (842+52=894). The calculation for the Dow overshoots the 200 by 23 points (8278-7417=861; 861*.38=327; 8278-327=7951; 861*.61=525; 7951+525=8476). Of course, both MAs are falling, so this isn't perfectly exact. If the indexes can pierce those levels with conviction, I'll be more open to your brother leg to the October rally. Until then, I'm of the opinion this is a wave 2 corrective to the 1 off the December high.
Always have enjoyed your comments and perspective though I rarely post.
Best regards,
Mike |
