Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1872557

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.065

+1.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: nelli who wrote (54)	7/30/1997 8:56:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap	of 645

Hi Wu, I respect your comments and you just might be right on the money in your comments about your short term and long term projections. Normal behaviour is for stocks too show weakness during secondary offerings as well as for stocks that have recently made huge short term advances due seem to find ways to pull back in price. No doubt that biotechs are news driven and once the news blows over these stocks do settle down in price. However, a mkt valuation of approx. 300 million in today's mkt addressing a potentially very large mkt[check earlier post] that has completed a phase III study with flying colors and is very cheap relative to other biotechs that are at the same product stage is a very attractive situation that has caught my interest. Working off of conservative models with modest assumptions of market penetration point to much higher prices whether it is a discounted cash flow or multiple of projected revenue. There are many biotech stocks that lack visibiity where making any forcast is next to impossible, or the numbers just don't support the price of the stock. After the results of AVIR's phase III,clearly this has brought much attention from some sharp minds in the biotech industry because of the increased visiability. Don't let anyone on this thread mislead you without understanding their logic. Too rebuff the comments of the likes of Rachel Lehany[ H&Q analyst], Sturza, and others without numbers and facts to support one's comments is as bad as investing one's portfolio based on nothing but rumors and hot tips. This is not to say that these analysts are always right and the public is wrong because that is the farthest from the truth, rather one needs to analyze with logic and numbers to justify a counter position. I still am looking for sound fundamental logic to refute my beliefs as well as the beliefs of the analysts that I just referenced. To support your comments there has been quite alot of insiders who have sold in the past 3 wks. which can be a bit troubling for my long postion. I have been tracking insiders for years on a daily real time basis and have found this behaviour to be quite normal for a stock that has just trippled in price in short time. Logically, I can understand the insiders mindset to take some money off the table after such a rise and this is common behaviour for anyone to observe in rapidly advancing stocks. Anyway, good luck no matter what side your position is placed.

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