Jay, the world is obviously not a homogenous mass. You worried that: <...it is nearly time to go severely and punishingly short on the market, because for too many reasons, above all, expensive market in a worsening economy, made worse still by monetary and fiscal policies. >
In panic I rushed to the CDMA Development Group website to see how much mayhem was happening in the area crucial to me. I found quite the contrary to your worries. In fact, the projections from QUALCOMM for March are quite exciting.
cdg.org
Easy money and credit is a good thing for QUALCOMM - people will get their credit cards out and put cyberphones on the never-never plan, paying them off from future income - an excellent commitment to make.
However, in the tactical battle, zero-sum game of trading the share prices over the next year, you might well be right.
Once the thrill of starting a war is over and everyone is back to their prosaic lives dominated by debt, freeway jams, the cubicle, supermarkets and Prozac, perhaps there will be an overall market pullback to lower than the previous lows. That will certainly carry QUALCOMM along with it. Which will mean buy, buy, buy [having sold, sold, sold - not that I'm in the trading business, though admittedly I have a Tonka Truckload of cash ready to be buyer of last resort, which gives the lie to that].
But, maybe QCOM won't drop as much as the rest. With a sales graph like that link, it wouldn't be surprising if QCOM dropped a little, but most other stuff drops a lot.
Not all companies lose in a worsening economy.
Meanwhile, our great and estimable hero, Uncle Al, KBE continues to run the world's pre-eminent currency and has kept it on the rails with excellent monetary policies [he doesn't agree with the fiscal policies - namely the latest tax cut which has been proposed].
Mqurice |
