Another potential problem:
In recent days the Iranian military commenced a series of war games code-named “Moharram.” It is possible that these exercises are intended to cover preparations for an Iranian attack on the flank or rear of British/U.S. forces advancing toward Baghdad. For many years the Iranian military has been training its elite troops for a special mission, described by Middle East expert Yossef Bodansky as a test of “the ability of [Iran’s] reorganized ground forces to confront an army of the quality of the Israeli Defense Force.” In the first series of Iranian exercises, conducted shortly after the 1991 Gulf War, three Iranian armored and mechanized divisions, four infantry brigades and paratroop forces participated in the exercise. According to Bodansky, “The Iranian forces were to breach fortified positions of the enemy and then develop a swift, deep offensive into the enemy’s rear with extensive fire support from artillery and combat aircraft.” This classic “blitzkrieg” maneuver involves the encirclement of target forces by penetrating their rear and disrupting their logistics and communications, forcing their surrender. This method was used to great effect by Russian forces against Hitler’s Sixth Army during the Battle of Stalingrad in World War II. Previously the Germans had advanced across Russia using this same method. It is of interest, in this context, that Saddam Hussein’s stated defense strategy is to turn the city of Baghdad into a Stalingrad type battle, in which enemy forces concentrated in front of the city (or inside part of the city) are outflanked and trapped. Military analysts who read about Saddam’s remarks probably scoffed, knowing that Saddam’s army, at best, could only hope to fight a static battle of attrition inside the city. But what if the Iranians are preparing an envelopment operation? Stalingrad was not simply a battle of attrition. It was a battle of entrapment and encirclement, effected by a surprise attack to the German Sixth Army’s overextended flanks.
Iranian officials have stated that today’s military exercises are to test Iranian proficiency at “asymmetrical combat,” a term also used by the Chinese to describe a method of warfare in which inferior forces defeat superior forces by neutralizing the electronic and troop control advantages of the superior force. Weapons used in this type of warfare would include electromagnetic pulse bombs, surface-to-surface missiles and paratroop raids on command centers. The bolstering of Iranian troops near the Iraq border on the eve of a U.S. ground offensive into Iraq is therefore an ominous development. Iran’s strategists know that President Bush has included Iran in the “axis of evil.” The Iranian leadership has every reason to think that they are next on the president’s list of terror-supporting states targeted for elimination. It is only logical that Iran would contemplate a move against the American forces in the days ahead.
Two weeks ago the Iranian 624th and 41st armored brigades advanced to marshes near the Iran-Iraq border. Iran also has surface-to-surface anti-ship missiles positioned along its coastline. These might successfully engage U.S. naval forces and assist in the temporary closing of the Persian Gulf to oil traffic. This would be a serious economic blow to America and its oil-dependent allies. The resulting economic hit on already weakened financial institutions could produce a chain reaction that would distract the president from the war, forcing him to focus on a deteriorating domestic situation at home. |
