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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: pezz who wrote (24017)3/21/2003 8:46:19 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Tonight’s Report:

(a) I am counting on the following shorted Puts (MO and PTR) to expire worthless, in my favor, as usual, allowing me to abscond with mucho premium for nothing down:0)

Message 18092103
October 9th, 2002
Hello Pezz, Today's Report:
(a) Shorted Philip Morris (MO) March Strike 32.5 Puts @ 2.35/shr premium
(b) Shorted China Petroleum (PTR) March Strike 20 Puts @ 1.3/shr premium [Ref: Petro China (HK.857 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com. )]
Figuring MO's product will be in demand in the coming months due to the bite of stressful recession and war, they can hold off the lawyers as they always had, and their then 7+% dividend (if putted to me) will come in handy to offset the interest I must pay to the Japanese creditors; and
PTR's product will be in demand due to economic vibrancy and the same war, and (if putted to me) their 7+% dividend yield will satisfy the Japanese creditors in same manner; while
The Japanese Yen financing will devalue in principal amount due to economic recession in world ex-China and economic vibrancy in China, and due to war interrupting their oil flow from ME, necessitating purchase of same from PTR. Given the symmetry and internal consistency of the scenario, and the reduced sale of SUVs out of their factories, the Japanese will most likely be increasing their consumption of MO's product.


Chugs, Jay
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