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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: GrillSgt who wrote (229875)3/21/2003 10:57:33 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
No..it's over

Well, the news flow could not get much more optimistic...listening to the Matrix Networks last night, it was abundantly clear that:

a) Saddam is dead
b) Bagdad will be taken without a shot being fired
c) Oil fields will be captured intact....

So taking all this as a "given", the next question is: What will we rally on next? The fundamental news will continue to suck. Oil will pull back to mid 20's/bbl or so, as most predicted before we started. Debt and Balance of Trade will continue to soar, bonds will continue to tank (sorry, Reaper) and the housing bubble will grind to a halt. Then what? Is a 35-ish PE on the SPX justified with 4% and rising 10 year yield, plus the other structural problems (even ex-terrorism)? I doubt it, but we'll see....

One other point...what happens if at the end of the day, we capture ZERO weapons of mass distruction in Iraq? To US credibility in the world (which isn't too great right now anyway)....not a short term consideration, but certainly a question that would be revisited by November 2008, to be sure.
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