Various thoughts on Iraq:
Zachary Latif 00:42
Since the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq has become a reality I decided to pen down a few thoughts (and predictions) that I had on the subject:
The Iraqi war and its aftermath will prove to be much more interesting than Afghanistan since Kuwait has brilliant hotels for journalists. The aftermath will naturally be followed more closely than that of Afghanistan, which has receded from the public fore along with Hamid Karzai and his troubles. Iraq as a relatively developed nation is more accessible, not as removed from civilisation and its people are literate urbanites as opposed to tribals, the globe will be more concerned about their fate.
The war on Iraq will be an extremely short one. Iraqis are renowned by their fellow Arabs for being a brutal, treacherous & traitorous people (a harsh generalisation indeed!). Iraqis are the only people who turned their back on their own religious leader and left him to be massacred by a vastly superior force (because of Iraqis the Shi'ite mourn on Muharram). Hell if they can do that to the grandson of the Prophet (PBUH) why should they spare Saddam such a fate!
Baghdad has always been the focal point of Iraq and its successful capture will be the end of any resistance. I admire Bush's forthrightness nevertheless in this case I believe he may be rather too prudent when warns Americans that this will be a long war and cost many causalities. The JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) have an accuracy rate of over 90% and will target Iraqi facilities with the minimal of civilian casualties. Baghdad's capture will rid opposition forces of a nexus point and the architectural spread of Baghdad means that its wide avenues (as opposed to the cloistered streets of Mogadishu) will inhibit the urban fighting as seen in Somalia.
Once Baghdad and more specifically Saddam's authority collapses (bombing his bunker is the first step and the Americans claims he was inside at the time) Iraqi resistance will fold like a deck of cards.
Iraq maybe an artificial nation but its peoples are united by their survival instinct and ruggedness. They, and the officers the Republican Guard, realise that cooperation with an undeniably superior force will protect their assets and their lives. The Republican Guard officers understand that the offer of amnesty may go as far as to protect their vast property holding in Baghdad and already Iraqi troops are surrendering. Perhaps the earlier rumours of mass defection were only propaganda but its psychological effect on Iraqis who perceived that the regime was being undermined by its own treachery.
Through a successful victory in Iraq, Bush and Blair will emerge as undeniable victors. Casting forth moral righteousness in a world seemingly blurred in shades of gray, Blair's domestic troubles and Bush's foreign handicaps will be things of the past. Their political careers will be renewed or perhaps in Blair's case gracefully culminated by success in the Middle East.
I would go short on oil and long on the dollar. The Rumalia oil fields may have burnt by the Iraqi soldiers but the price of oil is exacerbated by the conflict and fears in Iraq. Once a successful conclusion is inevitable the risk premium on oil and the discount on the dollar will be no more since OPEC nations are already worrying about a glut in world supply. At any rate even if Iraq's oil production is handicapped by Saddam, only 2.5% of the world's daily supply is at risk and can be covered adequately by the US's Strategic Petroleum Reserve at some 600mn barrels. Oil prices collapsed to $10 a barrel following the Gulf War and as the Financial Times put it following the short wars of the latter half of the century (Yom Kippur, Kosovo, etc) the industries that tend to over perform are software, construction and expansionary industries. If the situation is any worse then the last resort would be always to march in Venezuela and solve the general strike crippling the oil industry. The world economy isn't that exposed to oil and at any rate analysts have effectively shown that a deep reduction in oil prices would bring such a significant boon to the economy as previously thought, thus the fact that the war was about oil is completely ludicrous.
Iraq will become the pearl of the Middle East, slushing in aid and oil money finally put to good use, it will be allowed to continue its natural evolution along geopolitical fault lines without impediment from tyrants such as Saddam Hussein. Kurdistan will become a reality (political or cultural it remains to be seen) and Shi'ism will once again flourish in the southerly regions, life will be good for Iraqis and they need only thank Mr Bush.
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