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Pastimes : 2003 NCAA College Basketball March Madness
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To: Robert F. Newton who wrote (121)3/21/2003 11:00:18 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell  Read Replies (1) of 278
 
There are eight total games with 5s vs. 12s or 6s vs. 11s. Whether it make any sense to choose all the underdogs depends on how many upsets you think there might be that year. From a strictly mathematical perspective, you'd only need three upsets to make it worth your while. For example:

If all three 12s win: 12+12+12+3=39 vs. 5+6+6+6+6+5=34
If two 12s and an 11 win: 12+12+11+3=38 vs. 5+5+6+6+6+5=33
If one 12 and two 11s win: 12+11+11+3=37 vs. 5+5+5+6+6+5=32
if all three 11s win: 11+11+11+3=36 vs. 5+5+5+5+6+5=31

Even if you are not sure which teams to choose to be upset, it still might make sense to pick all the underdogs because the winning 5s still have to face 4s and 6s still have to face 3s to advance, which is normally a tall order considering the huge step up in talent. Only when you think there's a very good chance a 5 or 6 will advance to the third round should you pick them.

- Jeff
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