Irrational Exuberance?
Seems that most of the experts on military affairs, i.e. journalists, investment strategists, retired military officers become "consultants", have decided that the war with Iraq is going quite well and may be over in a matter of days. Not to throw cold water over a very pleasing scenario, but we havent won a single battle, and conserving its military strength to fight ground battles in the major cities is the smartest thing the Iraqi military can do in the face of America's overwhelming air superiority. It's true that if we've managed to kill or incapacitate Saddam and other key leaders, that could precipitate a capitulation. If not, however, the crucial military battles are still ahead. Responses, both terrorist and non, are also likely in the weeks and months ahead.
The 100% equity position I took Tues, March 11th, has been pared back to 40% now. If Saddam or his sons/generals are still in control, the key battles wont occur for another week or so. |
