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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: gdichaz who wrote (53654)	3/22/2003 5:16:34 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 54805

CDMA Growth Potential Cha2, Just thought that I best get back and let you know that I have not forgotten your request for me to comment on what I think is the potential for CDMA in its various forms in the world over the next few years. I intend to do that, just cant tell you when I will complete a response. The first thing I need to do, before responding is to go back and plug in (and recalculate) revised numbers to the last "Unofficial" Technology Scorecard that I have been maintaining for some time and make it "Official," now that CDG has finally published "official" year ending CDMA subscriber numbers. When I published the unofficial numbers 6 weeks or so ago for year ending 2002 I used EMC's numbers which I consider official for GSM (and also use for AMPS, TDMA, and PDC) but not for CDMA. As a consequence I noted that official numbers would be calculated when CDG publishes Q4 2003 figures which they now have done.. There is a wider than normal discrepancy between EMC's unofficial CDMA number and CDG's "official" number for year ending 2002. EMC reported 142.7 million CDMA subs at year end and CDG reported 146.7 million. In addition EMC showed only 8.6 million CDMA net sub adds for Q4 and CDG reported a much more encouraging 11.8 million net sub adds for that final quarter. Based on the unofficial numbers I had reported that in 2002 That CDMA with 27.2% YOY Growth grew slightly faster than GSM (25.5%) in 2003. I think you will be pleased to hear that the gap is somewhat wider than that, as I am. Worst case, CDMA can once again legitimately claim to be the worlds fastest growing mobile wireless technology (even if a few WLL sub numbers are thrown in as they may well be - and distictions are now blurring because of Reliance's redefinition of limited mobility). Best, - Eric -

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