War is never pretty. It is serendipitious to think that we can go into a foreign country, subdue them, with no loss of life.
I suspect most of the war will be over by the end of this coming week. Its hard to imagine the iraqi grunt having much desire to fight. Saddam has not been heard from, and rumors persist that the iraqi command is in surrender negotiations.
the risks now, imo, are desperate gas or bio attacks, and/or terrorist acts in and outside of iraq.
re the market, this clearly is a relief rally of maga proportions. it probably has more legs in the short run.
what is critical is on two fronts:
one - sentiment - is the psychology changing?. in february 18 Billion went inot bond funds while 10 billion came out of equity funds. adding to bond funds now, particularly intermediate and longer us govt bond funds is likely to lose 5-10 % total return over the remainder of the year, if not worse. investment in equities, after 3 years of a ferocious bear market, is probably quite a bit smarter. yet, follow the money. the investing public is still scared shitless over losing more money.
and tw, from a technical basis, we seem to have more than held that critical 7280 level on the dow. if we can get above the january 03 highs, then there is reasonable TA evidence taht we are putting in a strong bottom, rather than another failed rally.
note to the thread. for the past few weeks i have been having personal physical problems, with shingles and my vision. if my typing is strange, so be it, is hard for me to edit. i should be okay, but iti s a bugger. larry |
