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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (83731)	3/24/2003 12:00:03 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "My own bet is that there will be no war as such, just a few mopping up operations in places like Tikrit, where there are pockets of men trapped who are too deeply implicated in Saddam's regime to survive the transition. But most of these men are running away now, imo. I wouldn't be surprised if the Kurds do have Tariq Aziz." Nope. The basic problem with Bush is that he is running in what traders call "hope mode". In this mode, one hopes that everything will turn out okay, but strains to avoid seeing reality for what it is. The Israelis have never conquered a major Arab city, other than Beirut. And that was while Beirut was held only by a disorganized rabble, more at war with itself than with Israel. There's a reason for this, and it's the same as the reason that the Israelis still don't have peace in Palestine. Like I've told you guys before, it is true that you can have peace at the barrel of a gun. But you have to pull the trigger. And keep pulling it over and over. Until you kill 5% or so of the population. -- Carl

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