Can't take much more of this ...
Fellows, this is what Brad wrote a few posts back <<There is clear evidence that the flu causes 20,000 + deaths/yr and whether the cause is direclty or indirectly related to influenza is irrevelant. Just as patients don't actually die of AIDS it still is the cause for impaired immune systems that allow the patient to be susceptable to infections that ultimately kill the patients.>> How anyone can go from this to the stuff you and Haolin are saying is beyond me. Who's "twisting"? In fact, affirming again and again that Brad <<ignore(s) the basic facts thet flu is not fatal disease but AIDS is>> comes pretty close to a personal insult. Regardless, viral influenza is an important enough disease that many companies are working on improving or developing new vaccines (PMC, Merck, Cortecs - working on an oral version, see pslgroup.com or treatments (Gilead, Glaxo-Wellcome with Biota, etc.)
Regarding <<It is You said the flu vaccine cost $2 in the USA now.>>
The $2 figure is what costs the companies (for example, Pasteur Merieux Connaught [PMC]- a Rhone Poulenc unit and a major vaccine maker. They do make a flu vaccine for adults.) to manufacture the vaccine. Brad tried to explain this nicely and patiently at least twice but you guys do not get, or, more likely, do not want to get it. $8-10 or something close to it is the SELLING PRICE for this product. I hope we can tell the difference between the COST of product and what we SELL it for. Pretty basic stuff. From your off-base comment on Brad having to be AVIR's CEO in order to come up with these ESTIMATES, I gather than you have never spent one minute with an analyst report - their job is to make educated, informed and reasoned guesses. These guesses are not always right, in fact they are very often wrong, and in biotechs lately they've being pretty bad as far as stock prices go.
The lack of patent protection for the cold-adapted flu vaccine IS a very legitimate concern. As you may know the technology was described in 1967 by U. Michigan researchers and would be off-patent by now (even if patents were issued, which I do not know).
The actual size of the market for Aviron's lead product is certainly not known. Given their phase III results to date, it is safe to assume (say, with probability >75% - but if you want to argue for a different number, please do so) that there WILL BE a market for this in two years or so (meaning approval by the FDA). The (informed-reasoned-educated) guessing game here is of course in coming up with decent estimates for this market, say, in the year 2000, and based on these we can decide on a fair price for AVIR's stock today. We can then factor in technical, sentiment, marketwise issues if we so want.
I've seen a few posts here trying to play these guessing games; I've found these informative. but certainly do not accept every aspect thereof. I've also seen a number of posts full of incoherent and insolent statements; these I do not enjoy - I doubt anybody does.
Max |
