Well, so much for the lightning quick victory idea in Iraq; I guess we go to the next most desirable outcome, a quick victory in Iraq (2-3 weeks). We're at 5 days and counting, now.
Incidentally, Saddam issued a broadcast tape that looked to be real (current) and asked all the faithful to cut the throats of infidels. Unfortunately, it praised the Iraqi 51st armored division, the one that surrendered, en masse, on Friday, I think. Odds are 75-25 Saddam is dead and these guys are hoping to draw this thing into a guerrilla style war that we'll lose our appetite for and then they'll be able to negotiate some sort of peace. (Does anyone remember El Cid, with Charlton Heston and Sophia Loren? Strapped the Dead El Cid to his horse to lead the last charge--against the Moors, as it turned out. (:^-) ). My guess is Saddam's death becomes known before Friday.
Onto the markets, VIX bumped up today. When I look at the Naz, I see a flattening pattern that looks to break down below the 1020 range. Similarly, the SPX breaks support at 760, and the Dow at 7200. I don't see these support levels being broken this spring, necessarily. If the war ends before the Ides of April, then we rally and stabilize. It's after May that I see things fraying seriously.
We are still in rally mode, fwiw; that's important to remember.
Nice call on the homeboys, Sharp; did you commit any capital to the idea? I'm trying to work with put options these days, rather than the big capital commitment of full on frontal short positions.
Kb |
