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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject3/24/2003 9:20:19 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Reality of war hits home
<<Not only home: It hit the market too!>>

By Steve Schifferes
BBC News Online in Washington


Fire fights and casualites - live on television
Americans are beginning to realise that the war may be longer and harder than they first thought.

The headlines in the morning newspapers said it all.

"The toughest day," said the Baltimore Sun.

"Clashes bring heaviest day of American casualties," headlined the Washington Post.

"Allied troops endure toughest day," said USA Today.

This is just the beginning of a tough fight

President George W Bush
And pictures of the aftermath of an attack by a US soldier on his own troops played across the television networks.

After several days of positive headlines, the news agenda was dominated by US losses and captured prisoners of war on display.

Inside the newspapers, many of which now have special sections devoted to the Iraqi conflict, there were interviews with the families of injured soldiers or those waiting for news, and condemnation of Iraqi behaviour by US officials.

It seemed a sharp contrast to the heady first days when coalition forces were portrayed as speeding towards Baghdad, meeting little resistance, with the possibility of a mass surrender of Iraqi forces.

The tolerance for casualties in this war is lower than in the 1991 Gulf War

Political science professor John Mueller, Ohio State University
Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who appeared on the weekend talk shows along with the head of the US military, General Richard Myers, said: "A war is a war. It is a brutal thing."

And President George W Bush, returning from his weekend retreat at Camp David, told reporters: "It is evident that it's going to take a while to achieve our objective, but we're on course, we're determined, and we're making good progress."

"This is just the beginning of a tough fight."

Changing views

Opinion polls taken over Saturday and Sunday have tracked a sharp change in mood.

91% of Republicans, but only 54% of Democrats, support the war

Gallup Poll
A New York Times poll showed that, in the first days of the war, the number expecting a quick and successful campaign had increased from 43% to 63%.

But a Gallup poll for USA Today showed that, while 62% of those polled on Saturday thought the war was going well, only 44% said so on Sunday.

And 49% on Sunday said they thought a bloody ground war with heavy casualties was likely, compared to 30% on Saturday.

Overall - despite the losses - Americans are still rallying around the troops, with over 70% supporting the war - a little less than the 82% support that Mr Bush's father gained in the initial stages of the first Gulf War.

And, also in contrast to 1991, support for the war is sharply polarised by political party.

While 91% of Republicans support the war, only 54% of Democrats do so.

Managing expectations

The administration, and the military, has been concerned for some time that the public had unrealistic expectations of a quick victory.


Will more casualties make US reluctant to fight?
The President has been careful to distance himself from the day-to-day running of the war, leaving that to Mr Rumsfeld and military commanders in the field.

And polls show that the President's own stature has risen since the war began, with his overall approval rating rising from below 60% to 71%.

Americans are also feeling more satisfied about the way things are going in the country generally, with two-thirds now satisfied, compared to just one-third in early March - a sign of increasing national unity that often takes place during conflict.

But opinion among experts is divided about whether heavy casualties would undermine support for the war.

"The American people are more defeat-phobic than casualty-phobic," said Peter Feaver of Duke University.

However, John Mueller of Ohio State University says that "the tolerance for casualties in this war is lower than in the 1991 Gulf War."

In that conflict, there were 147 US deaths in combat and 647 wounded.
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