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Politics : Amateur Political Predictions

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To: grusum who wrote (46)3/26/2003 1:14:44 AM
From: grusum  Read Replies (1) of 75
 
Disturbing prediction:

Putin knows Iraq has nuclear weapons:

I’ve been thinking lately of the strange behavior of Putin. Putin had a lot to gain in a friendly relationship with the USA. The USA is in a position to help him in lots of ways, and he has acted like he knew it, until we decided that we were going into Iraq. Then his behavior changed. He has risked much by going against the USA in this war with Iraq.

His remarks seemed to be warnings of some kind of unknown disastrous consequences if we invaded Iraq. I kept wondering what would make him act this way. Sure he wants the economic deals with Iraq. Sure he was probably selling them weapons that we didn’t want Iraq to have. But the relationship would not have been in such disrepair if he just gave in at certain point and at least didn’t get in our way.

Now consider Saddam for the last 12 years. What did he want more than anything else? Not chemical or biologic weapons. Not those, because if the enemy is prepared for them, they’re not very effective. They’re effective against unprepared civilians.

No, the one thing that’s effective against everyone in its range, armies or civilians is Nuclear Weapons. But if he had nuclear weapons (as i'm saying he does), then why was he trying to build them? Well, probably just because he wanted better, and more of them. He could have anything he wanted with his billions. So why not nukes? But how did he get them?

There were stories that Russia was missing 20 suitcase nukes. 20 unaccounted for nuclear weapons. Not very big, but still quite destructive.

You have cash starved Russia that is friendly with cash rich Saddam. You do the math.

It makes sense to me that he had purchased suitcase nukes years ago. Perhaps he had just paid for them for some terrorist organization to use, but just as likely, he kept at least some of them for himself.

If he knew that the USA was going to go to war against him, he might have thought to prepare to use those weapons.

If he has those weapons strategically placed in and around Baghdad, we could be facing an unimaginable nightmare when we attempt to take the city.

I can see no logical reason why he could not have obtained those weapons over the years. I predict that he has them, and we can only pray that he doesn’t use them.

BTW, i think that the chances of Saddam being dead are about 70% and the chances he was at least injured in the attack at close to 90%. If he’s dead the choice to use those weapons would fall to those next in command. Whoever they are, maybe they’re smart enough not to use them.

I hope we decide to lay siege to Baghdad and not enter. I hope we decide not to come within 10 miles of Baghdad. I don’t trust what may await us in that city.
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