A thought provoking post, I must say.
First, concerning the apparent behavioral change by Vladimir Putin -- Putin is a consummate actor and his behavior does not accurately reflect his strategic intention. Putin is, was, and will always be KGB at his core. To assume he has had a religious-intellectual awakening is a serious and illogical strategic misjudgment. Year ago (in the 80’s) Foreign Affairs published an article concerning the overthrow of the US and the Western Alliances. That strategy involved divestiture of the costly Eastern European nations to place financial burden on the West. (Interestingly parallel to President Reagan’s financial pressure via military expenditures as a percentage of GNP.) I would argue therefore that Putin will drain US assets, both military and financial, to his own ends at every opportunity.
The “axis of evil” is but the tip of an iceberg, with the old Sino-Soviet block buried beneath it.
Secondly concerning the suitcase nukes, I agree there are missing items but disagree on the most bang-for-the-buck utilization by Saddam and/or terrorists. Contaminating one’s own land, as limited as that damage would be, makes little sense. Likewise, detonation within Israel would be a devastating miscalculation since Sharon has says they are loaded and ready to nuke Iraq. Saddam wanted the real thing because of the wider area of destruction and reduction in post-strike retaliation capabilities. Suitcase bombs are better used elsewhere in a terrorist scenario; and as such, is of worldwide concern to the US.
The best strategy to take Baghdad is debatable. Laying siege and isolating the entire population (good, bad, and indifferent) would run counter to our professed political objectives – targeting the regime not innocent Iraqis. After all, Clausewitz said the military is but an extension of the political arm. I would argue that efforts should be made to cause concentration of the Republican Guard units and totally decimate them – as near to 100% casualty rate as possible. These troops are not re-trainable and should never be trusted. Only one army really demonstrated that they knew how to handle this type situation; that dates to 1253 and the Mongols. If elements of the Republican Guard remain they will without any doubt at all form the nucleus of future indigenous terrorist groups.
Let’s not forget Iran – better prepared for democracy but far more dangerous than Iraq.
I still wonder where those three Iraqi ships are that are sailing aimlessly around – haven’t heard anything about them for a while have we? Have they landed anywhere to your knowledge?
Thank you for the thought provoking post. |
