shoreco, I somewhat agree with all your points
Just not the point that the top is in. I think it could be in but I think that more more likely than not we we'll pass Friday's high.
And hey, I've got lots more puts than I do calls now (3/1).
Whether we're two years apart doesn't make any difference and whether its spring rather than fall, and whether the '01 rally sprung from various stimulus and promises doesn't matter to the point that I was making, that there could be rallies (bogus or otherwise, short lived or otherwise) based on "progress on the war." Two years ago I was pretty short in November and every time I thought the rally was over we'd get another bump up allegedly on "progress on the war."
One indication to me that the top is not in is because, at the very least, some of the big guys still need time to get out if last Friday was the top. The large gap down Monday didn't even give them time to get out, and the comparatively low volume Monday indicates to me that many are still holding and will thus make themselves at least one more ramp to get out, unless they're taking us even higher. The low volume selling today indicates to me that they just didn't want to buy any more today, but not much more, as internals weren't really that bad today.
But who knows, we've got no crystal balls here (although occasionally we have brass ones <g>) |
