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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Mike M2 who wrote (231203)3/26/2003 4:52:05 PM
From: Mark Adams  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
Mike,

I guess you read Puplava's mention of '29/73 as warning against purchases of S&P500/QQQ today. Whereas I might read it as 'those who purchased Nasdaq at 5000 may take 10-25 years to breakeven'. That leaves open the question re the potential for those who purchase at 1400. Or 1500/775 on the S&P.

I think the more worrying analogy would be Japan. That we are actually in the second inning of the game, not the bottom of the ninth.

As for the advisability of being long today, it is hard to say. Earnings yield seems low, especially looking at trailing 12 months. But were those earnings depressed by companies availing themselves accelerated depreciation schedules created as part of the first Bush budget cut? Have trailing earnings been depressed by extraordinary charges to 'resize' operations?

About the only thing I'm sure of, as noted post 9/11, is the tails are fatter. The future is much less certain than y2k, and the range of potential outcomes much more varied, as I see it.
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