Basra: Major Battle Still Ahead
Mar 27, 2003 - 0058 GMT
Summary
The Iraqi counteroffensive on March 26 -- and indications that earlier reports of a civilian uprising in Basra were false -- suggest that coalition forces will continue to face serious resistance in the south. But Iraqi forces advancing from Basra to launch an attack could be engaged in the open, which raises the chances for a coalition victory there. The major battle for Basra still lies ahead.
Analysis
Conflicting information circulated on March 26 about fierce fighting around Basra, Iraq's second-largest city. It has become increasingly evident that Iraqi forces around Basra are capable not only of mounting a stubborn defense, but also of launching major attacks. U.S. Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks, speaking for CENTCOM, said, "It is a very confusing situation, to say the least."
Leaving Basra under Iraqi control would open the possibility of coalition forces being attacked from the rear, which would delay their advance on Baghdad. And for Iraq, losing the battle for Basra would be a major military and political loss. British forces on the ground in Basra, if not reinforced by ground reserves, risk being bogged down in fighting in and around the city for quite some time.
As of now, Iraqi forces outnumber British in the area. Britain has the 7th Armoured Brigade, the Desert Rats, semi-circling Basra from the west. 3 Commando is at Al Faw and spread toward Basra. The 16th Airmobile is southwest of Basra, and the 3rd Mechanized Infantry Brigade is just south of Basra. The 1st Armoured Division is northwest of Basra, but it is engaged around Al Qurnah and cannot help in the battle for Basra.
The Iraqis reportedly have at least 50,000 troops in Basra, a city of 1.7 million people. This includes the army's 51st Mechanized Division, some unidentified Republican Guard units, some special operations forces, several thousand Fedayeen commandos, Baath Party armed units and numerous so-called "People's Army," or urban community, units. Stratfor's sources say that the Iraqi southern command remains firmly in control of Basra.
Evidence suggests Iraqi military leaders will count on their superior manpower to change the situation in the south. But we believe that both the superior British ground fire capability and the coalition's domination of the air will counter any manpower advantages Iraq enjoys. We believe these factors will allow coalition forces to defeat Iraqi forces in Basra -- especially if they leave the city to launch an attack, opening the possibility for air strikes.
It appears the Iraqi southern command has decided to launch a multi-directional counteroffensive from Basra, with the goal of defeating and partly encircling British forces in southern Iraq -- including those around Basra and all the way down to the Iraqi maritime border in the Persian Gulf, Stratfor sources in the Russian and German intelligence communities say. Al Jazeera TV reports that Iraq's March 26 offensive out of Basra succeeded in encircling some British units.
This strategy has resulted in several attacks from Basra on March 26. During March 26 fighting, some unidentified infantry units of the Iraqi army reportedly regained control over one of three Basra airports. At the same time, the Iraqi 51st Mechanized Division launched two battalion-size attacks on the British positions at Az Zubayr. But the main offensive move came southeast of Basra, where the 25th Mechanized Brigade -- also of the 51st Mechanized -- moved swiftly through the darkness toward Al Faw peninsula. Their apparent aim was to join the Iraqi forces still engaged in fighting there.
The 25th inflicted an unidentified number of losses on the British units at Abu Al Khasib, and reportedly broke through their positions. The British units called for air support. This Iraqi column has come under heavy bombardment on March 26.
But our understanding is that this Iraqi venture out of the city has been a tactical -- and perhaps even operational -- mistake. By doing this, Iraqi forces exposed themselves to harsh allied bombing. In Stratfor's opinion, an Iraqi counteroffensive has few if any chances outside Basra. By the same token, British forces could make an equally dear mistake by going into the city if Iraqi forces have not surrendered and continue to offer resistance.
The latest intelligence, from Iranian and Russian sources, indicates that there was no uprising against the Iraqi government in Basra. Reports on Arab television support this claim, showing video of calm streets in Basra. The news of the uprising came from a British journalist, and was subsequently supported by British government officials.
Some sources speculate that the talk about the uprising was part of the British command's psychological warfare campaign, aimed at suppressing the morale of Iraqi forces and encouraging a true uprising in Basra and other Shia-populated areas of Iraq. In particular, inside Basra have been SAS and other special operations units, as well as MI6 operatives and agents, trying to foment an uprising there. But their efforts so far have failed, Russian sources say.
As for a reported gathering of several dozen people inside Basra who reportedly came under mortar attack from Iraqi troops, Iranian and Arab sources say they were locals gathering to express anger at coalition bombing of civilian areas in the city -- not to denounce the Iraqi government -- and that the gathering was not bombed. |
