Iraq's current oil production is barely enough to feed its people.
Hmmm.... An interesting theory... Let's test it..
1 million barrels x 365 days x $30/bbl= approx $11 Billion/annum
Divided by 20 million Iraqis = $547 per person
Given that the GDP per person (price parity) is $2,500 (according to CIA factbook) or $2,000 (Altas method, US$) according to the World Bank, that would equate to over 1/4 of the average income for each Iraqi citizen.
worldbank.org
Now multiply that by 3, which is what many experts are saying could be the daily oil output for Iraq within a couple of years and we see the economic lot of the average Iraqi vastly improving.
And given that since Saddam came to power, Iraqi GDP per person has declined from $12,000 per person in 1979 to $3,000 (or 2,500 if you take the CIA's estimate) currently, I'd say there's considerable pent up economic expansion available in Iraq.
So any economic assistance the US provides could be yield considerable returns, as well as creating a new market opportunity for US goods and services.
And considering the huge bill the US has already been handed because the UN (really France and Russia) has been content to "let" the US/UK governments continue to "contain" Saddam at our personal expense, and the fact that many nations in the Persian Gulf have suffered from a negative political risk perception by investors, Saddam's defeat could unlock tremendous economic opportunity throughout the entire region.
In fact, one of my primary themes with regard to the middle east is demographic. Many of these nations have experienced a tremendous baby boom. Fully one half of Saudi Arabia's population, in fact, is under the age of 18. This demographic dynamic is really what is calling the shots when it comes to middle east policy. With such a growing population of young people, the entire political and economic dynamic of the region is being drastically altered.
Young people have different priorities than the existing older population, who have already formed their views and found their "niche" in society. These young people want something more.. They want marriage, families, jobs.. that which gives every human being "worth" in life.. Failing obtaining any of those goals, they seek self-worth in other areas.. Their impressionable minds seek to understand why they are being denied these things. And they become susceptible to militant ideas fostered by cynical leaders who seek only to obtain political and military power by co-opting them to their cause... The very same manner such leaders as Hitler, Napoleon, and so many others were able to fill their minds with visions of glory, revenge, and conquest.. To take what they perceive has been denied to them by the West, and in particular, the Jews.
The bottom line is this demographic dynamic is forcing the hand of western leaders. We see, at least I do, that without tremendous economic and political transformation in the region, this cancer of Islamic militancy, and/or "Arab nationalism" will only grow to the point where "amputation" is required, not the current "major surgery" we're seeing in Iraq.
We can not prevent this demographic trend from occurring.. It's already happening before our very eyes. All we can seek to do is control and direct it towards something productive and positive.
Hawk |
