the guerrilla action in Baghdad IS THE MAIN ACTION
all else is preliminary and a relative cake walk
the faster they move north, the more vulnerable
so all the news about speed highlights vulnerability
major action?
the entire Baghdad guerrilla action will become the centerpiece to the entire war
that is not "mopping up", but rather the heart of the war
Baghdad is the war, the rest is foreplay
occupation (if it happens) is the cigarette after coitus
capturing Baghdad is the primary objective
I expect it to be the opposite of Saigon during VietNam
we based in Saigon, and had trouble everywhere else
then later, attacks came to the center
here in Iraq, I expect we will have success in every tiny city and town
but have big guerrilla troubles in larger cities
unsure about Basra, since longstanding hatred of Saddam and ethnic Shi'ite background
we will surround Baghdad, then comes trouble in every area leading to the cities
over time, our siege of Baghdad will hardly be viewed as liberation
instead, it is resemble THE SIEGE OF STALINGRAD
we will be hurt with reinforcements, with attacks on fuel supplies
our achilles heel is fuel & supply lines
they will be shot at by snipers and guerrillas day after day
we will be ducks on a pond with no cover, only the desert
we have vastly underestimated this enemy
we are attempting to dislodge them from their native country
HAVE YOU FACTORED IN REINFORCEMENT COMING FROM NUMEROUS ARAB NATIONS ASSISTING SADDAM?
OR AL QAEDA?
OR HEZBOLLAH?
OR ISLAMIC JIHAD?
OR TALIBANS?
if not, then you have missed a serious piece to this conflict
do you believe the popular uprising in every single Arab nation will simply die out?
or raise to a crescendo level, leading to entry into the war?
I believe they will enter the guerrilla ranks
WE CANNOT AND WILL NOT WIN A GUERRILLA WAR
NO PRECEDENT IN HISTORY
maybe you dont read history
most Americans slept thru it
by April 30th, I predict we will have parts of Baghdad captured, but have immense troubles in other parts
this is a city larger than Metro Boston in size and population
it is a city with entire networks of tunnels !!!
by April 30th, it will be clear that we are embroiled in a guerrilla war that frustrates our military
I believe the enemy has hidden tremendous amounts of small weaponry inside tunnels and mosques and basements
we gave them several months to prepare
we should have surprised them, but we didnt
we should have gone in back in early autumn, but we didnt
we should have had Turkey and NATO and UN onboard, but we didnt
THIS WILL QUICKLY TURN INTO AN UNWINNABLE VIETNAM
/ jim |
