Turn-around in semi equipment is mirage, says market watcher
By Semiconductor Business News
Mar 27, 2003 (7:44 AM)
URL: siliconstrategies.com
NEW TRIPOLI, PA. -- Despite a rising book-to-bill ratio, the semiconductor equipment market has not begun a turnaround, according to a report from the Information Network, a market research company led by Robert Castellano. But Applied Materials is gaining market share in almost all areas of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
The research organization predicted that semiconductor manufacturing equipment market would rise just 7.3 percent in 2003 before heading up more strongly in 2004.
“The book-to-bill ratio put out by SEMI is an illusion of growth, as there is none,” noted Castellano, president of the Information Network, in a statement. “Bookings have been flat for six months. But as a drawback of 20,000 layoffs in the industry, companies don't have sufficient manpower to build processing tools so that billings have essentially been dropping for the past six months, which raises the book-to-bill ratio.”
A number of effects have conspired to cap growth, according to Castellano. The already poor economy, stretched by the prewar jitters, bad weather, high oil prices, low stock market, decimated consumer confidence, and massive layoffs, has exasperated equipment suppliers in their struggle to grow as consumers and businesses alike defer buying high-tech items.
Strong competition from Applied Materials is further limiting growth.
“Based on equipment sectors analyzed in the report, Applied increased its share of its served equipment market from 41 percent in 2001 to 47 percent in 2002,” said Castellano.
Applied Materials took market share from rivals in every one of nine sub-markets it operates in, according to the 'Applied Materials: Competing For World Dominance' report from The Information Network.
A protracted stagnant economy means that the worldwide equipment market will grow only 7.3 percent in 2003, yet rebound strongly in 2004 with a 21.1 percent growth. Key is the growth in the 300-mm wafer market, with nearly 20 fabs in production at the end of 2003 and another half a dozen pilot lines. |
