But it is far less serious than the results of a war that could set western Christendom against Islam.
The CIA repeatedly warned of this danger. But they were ignored. Just as they warned about Irregulars. And were ignored by the Pentagon. With great power comes great hubris. And the inevitable great mistakes diminishing the super in superpower.
Pentagon Ignored CIA Warnings on Irregulars
Walter Pincus& Dana Priest, The Washington Post
WASHINGTON, 28 March 2003 — Intelligence analysts at the CIA and Pentagon warned the Bush administration that US troops would face significant resistance from Iraqi irregular forces employing guerrilla tactics, but those views haven’t been adequately reflected in the administration’s public predictions about how difficult a war might go, according to current and former intelligence officials. CIA analysts “thought there was a good chance we would be forced to fight our way through everything,’’ said one intelligence official who sat in on many briefings. “They were much more cautious about it being an easy situation.’’
With US and British troops being forced to defend a more than 200-mile supply line from the Kuwaiti border to US troops 50 miles from Baghdad and to fend off small-scale attacks by the Iraqi irregular forces, analysts at the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency are complaining that their reports would be softened as they moved to the White House. “The caveats would be dropped and the edges filed off,’’ the intelligence official said.
“The intelligence we gathered before the war accurately reflected what the troops are seeing out there now,’’ one military intelligence official said. “The question is whether the war planners and policy-makers took adequate notice of it in preparing the plan.’’ At least one prewar intelligence analysis described potential threats of Iraqi irregular forces mining harbors, planting bombs and firing at troops while disguised in civilian clothes, according to one senior intelligence official.
A CIA spokesman said the intelligence agencies presented President Bush and senior national security officials with “the full debate,’’ including a National Intelligence Estimate that analyzed the scenarios that US forces would likely encounter during a war. “Senior intelligence officials have all had their say,’’ the spokesman said.
One senior administration official said the consensus among intelligence agencies is that Saddam’s Fedayeen, a Baath Party militia commanded by President Saddam Hussein’s son, Uday, numbers about 25,000 members. The force has led a series of guerrilla-style attacks on US and British forces in southern Iraq cities.
The official said the paramilitary force is viewed as a potential “major annoyance’’ to the US war plan at the moment, but one that could expand into a significant problem. Because US and other foreign media have heavily reported the attacks, the official said, “they could become a major factor in the public relations battle during these early days of the war.’’
“We look at them as one of Saddam Hussein’s tools, particularly in his trying to lure us into urban warfare,’’ one senior intelligence official said Wednesday. But he added that they could become more important than they are “if the media turns them into the equivalent of the black pajama Viet Cong,’’ referring to the guerrilla force that caused many US casualties in the Vietnam War.
That view was echoed at the Pentagon on Wednesday by Maj. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who, when asked about the firefights involving the Fedayeen, described them as “fairly limited incidents (that) take on a greater perceived value than they are.’’
The Fedayeen, also known as “martyrs of Saddam’’ or “men of sacrifice,’’ were organized in 1995 by Uday Hussein. In addition to the paramilitary force, there are an additional 3,000 in a reserve made up of Baath Party members and some Iraqi journalists, according to an intelligence official.
‘’(Policy-makers) were told the Fedayeen would fight more fanatically than regular army forces, using conventional or unconventional means,’’ one analyst said Wednesday. “We did not predict the notoriety they have already achieved.’’
Pentagon spokesmen struggled Wednesday to deal with the media focus on the irregular forces. Victoria Clarke, the Pentagon’s chief spokeswoman, described them as “thugs’’ who “have done extraordinary things which go outside all laws and norms.’’ If captured, she said, they would be treated as war criminals.
Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks, deputy director of operations for the US Central Command, which is running the war, described the activities of the Fedayeen who operate either in or out of uniform as “more akin to the behaviors of global terrorists.’’
CIA and Pentagon analysts disagree about how long the Fedayeen and other elite units, such as the 15,000 members of the Special Republican Guard and the Special Security Organization, another elite force of 10,000 that enforces Baath Party orders, would continue to fight.
CIA analysts believe these groups will fight to the end, whether Saddam is alive or not. “This is about surviving for them,’’ said one former senior Iraqi analyst who still consults with the Pentagon. “A large percent of them acted like secret police and fear what the Americans would do with them.’’
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